It was recently announced that the U.S. government will grant Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukraine government $1.2 billion in military assistance. This is $1.2 billion added to the already-large national debt of Ukraine. This military assistance package includes additional air defense systems and munitions, 155, artillery rounds, and equipment to integrate Western air defense launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine’s air defense systems, among other weapons. This military assistance will be provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which relies on the United States using defense contractors to procure those weapons rather than delivering weapons from current stockpiles. The aid provided through USAI will take longer to reach Ukraine than when the administration provides aid via the president’s drawdown authority, which is when the weapons come from U.S. stockpiles.
With the new package announcement, the U.S. will have committed $37.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration, including $36.9 billion since the beginning of the war in February 2022.
It is important to emphasize that all these funds given to Ukraine for military assistance aren’t for free. The Ukrainian government has to pay this money back to the U.S. government. The real question is to know whether or not the Ukrainian government can pay back these $37 billion. Taking a debt is paying interest on future income. Zelensky has been increasing the national debt of his country and the next three or four generations will have to pay for its reimbursement. What does it imply?
For the Ukrainians, the increase of the national debt through the war means that the future wealth that will be created will not be used for the socioeconomic advancement of Ukrainians but to repay for the war. Thus, future net income will be lower in the next decades than it was prior to the war. In the next decades, taxes in Ukraine will be much higher than they were, and the Ukrainian government will have to borrow more and more for the completion of its various programs.
For the Americans, loaning funds to Ukraine is a pure geostrategic move to even get closer to the Russian border. More importantly, the continuous military support for Ukraine means that the United States will now have a decisive role in Ukrainian politics. Zelensky won’t be in power forever. Of course, another political leader will eventually succeed him. Since Ukraine is now tied to American interests in Easter Europe, the subsequent presidents that will come after Zelensky will be compelled to apply policies that favor the United States otherwise they will be subject to economic and commercial sanctions. By assisting Ukraine militarily without the latter being a member of NATO and the European Union, the United States ensures its geopolitical domination in Eastern Europe. It uses Ukraine as a stronghold, a bastion against Russia in the decades to come.
American-Ukrainian relations are certainly not relations of equals but rather purely geopolitical relations where Ukraine is no longer fiscally nor monetarily sovereign. Fiscal and monetary decisions will be made according to American interests in Eastern Europe, and this additional $1.2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine only consolidate America’s stronghold in Eastern Europe. Is it fair to say that Ukraine is becoming an American protectorate?