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The Three "No's" of the Russia-China Relationship

On February 20th China's Foreign Minister said the government would float a peace proposal for the Russia-Ukraine war. One day earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS news that the CCP is considering provision of lethal aide to Russia (weapons and ammunition). He provided no evidence but mentioned it was forthcoming.

In light of these developments it is important to know the conditions of the China-Russia relationship. In a January call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang communicated the conditions that define it:

  1. No Alliance

  2. No Confrontation

  3. No targeting of third parties

As always, we are presented with conflicting stories of the Chinese government's intentions in world affairs. For me, whether or not the US Secretary of State can produce evidence for his claims will be important in parsing truth from fiction.

Though the terms of China's peace proposal are not yet known, I am 95 percent confident that the West will find them to be a nonstarter. NATO let the world know in October that its plans for Ukraine extend a decade into the future. It seems unlikely that there is any real desire in the alliance to bring the war to an end.

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