Oil prices declined a couple of months ago but it seems that they have been on the rise again lately. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia (OPEC+), have been limiting oil production for more than a year. We heading toward its second year with limited oil supply. The continuous cut in production is one of the major reasons oil prices started to rise again as investors began to show more confidence in the market.
Geopolitical tensions or conflicts in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East or Venezuela, can disrupt oil supply. Investors may anticipate these disruptions leading to a decrease in supply and thus higher prices. The Israel-Palestine conflict, which continues to rage in the region, maintains the oil supply disrupted, thus, leading oil prices to increase.
As global economies recover from downturns or as industrial activity and transportation demand increase, the demand for oil may rise. Investors may be optimistic about the prospects for oil demand growth, particularly as economies reopen post-pandemic.
The bullish sentiment that investors have is also correlated with the speculative nature of the oil market itself. Indeed, speculative traders may enter the oil market based on technical analysis, market sentiment, or short-term supply-demand dynamics, driving prices higher in the short term. They trends and price momentum. If they perceive an upward trend in oil prices or anticipate that prices will continue rising, they may enter the market to capitalize on these expected gains. This increased buying activity can further drive prices higher. When retail investors see the price of oil skyrocketing, it incentivizes them to invest in the commodity itself.
Speculative traders often use leverage, meaning they can control large positions with a relatively small amount of capital. When leveraged positions generate profits, traders may reinvest those profits back into the market, amplifying the effect of speculative activity on prices.
Beyond the fact that speculators greatly affect the price movement of oil, thus affecting investors’ sentiment, investors in general have always seen infrastructure investment as a way to increase commodity prices. Investments in oil infrastructure, such as pipelines or refineries, can signal confidence in the long-term viability of the oil market. Such investments may lead investors to be more bullish on oil prices. And despite the growing focus on renewable energy sources, the transition away from oil is expected to be gradual and complex. Investors may anticipate challenges in the energy transition, leading them to remain bullish on oil in the medium to long term.
Overall, the reasons for investor bullishness on oil can vary, and it's essential to consider a combination of factors, including supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, market sentiment, and macroeconomic trends.